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Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner group, stated that he instructed the convoys en route to Moscow to halt their movements and return to their starting points to prevent any potential violence.

President Lukashenko of Belarus, in collaboration with Putin, stated that he had a conversation with Prigozhin and proposed a deal that would ensure the protection of the Wagner combatants.

In my opinion, this seems like a reduction of tension rather than a resolution. It is possible that Prigozhin believed other branches of the Russian military would support him or that he is attempting to delay. As long as the weapons remain in place, it appears that there is a stalemate. It is difficult to envision a scenario where the circumstances in Russia revert back to what they were last week or any time before.

Currently, I believe the chances of a change in regime happening during the weekend in Russia have significantly decreased, but it’s important to note that it is still only Saturday.

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