* **The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow gauge sees the second-quarter running at negative 1%.**
* **Coupled with the first-quarter’s decline of 1.6%, that would fit the technical definition of recession.**

A Federal Reserve tracker of economic growth is pointing to an increased chance that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.

Most Wall Street economists have been pointing to an increased chance of negative growth ahead, but figure it won’t come until at least 2023.

However, the [Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow]( https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow) measure, which tracks economic data in real time and adjusts continuously, sees second-quarter output contracting by 1%. Coupled with the first-quarter’s decline of 1.6%, that would fit the technical definition of recession.

“GDPNow has a strong track record, and the closer we get to July 28th’s release \[of the initial Q2 GDP estimate\] the more accurate it becomes,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.

[ https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/atlanta-fed-gdp-tracker-shows-the-us-economy-is-likely-in-a-recession.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/atlanta-fed-gdp-tracker-shows-the-us-economy-is-likely-in-a-recession.html)

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