Home Investment Memo: 531112

Investment Memo: 531112

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Our Rating: HOLD

Mehabe score: 2
G Factor: 4
Piotski Score: 5
The stock has a rating HOLD. The mehabe team score is reflective of its fundamental and technical merits. A rating above 8 is considered good buy. The stock has a G-Factor of 4 and Piotski score of 5.

Description

Balu is now an avant-garde manufacturer of fully finished and semi-finished forged crankshafts and Forged Components. Our incremental innovation & continuous strive to improve has awarded us by making us the only company to have the capability to manufacture components conforming to the New Emission Regulations & the New Energy VehiclesSite: 531112

Market Cap: Rs 1,691 cr Price: 228.0 Trading pe: 2684.0x
Book-value: 2.99/share Div yield: 0.00 % Earning yield: 0.09%
Face-value: 10.0/share 52week high: 254.60 52week low: 38.75

Technical Analysis

  • Stock trades at 228.0, above its 50dma 224.08. It also trades above its 200dma 165.8. The stock remains bullish on techicals
  • The 52 week high is at 254.60 and the 52week low is at 38.75

Price Chart

P/E Chart

Sales and Margin

Strengths

– is almost debt free.
– has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 50.82%
-Debtor days have improved from 173.38 to 73.00 days.

Weakness

– Stock is trading at 76.14 times its book value
-Though the company is reporting repeated profits, it is not paying out dividend
-Promoter holding has decreased over last quarter: -5.23%

Competition

– The industry trades at a mean P/E of 22.2x. Balu Forge trades at the industry’s max P/E of 2684.06x. 531112 trades at a P/E of 2684.0x
– Industry’s mean G-Factor is 3.6 while the mean Piotski score is 8.0. 531112 has a G-Factor of 4 and Piotski scoreof 5.
– Average 1 month return for industry is 6.1%. The max 1- month return was given by ISGEC Heavy: a return of 38.03 %

Quarterly Results

  • Sales for period ended Mar 2021 is Rs 43.37 cr compared to Rs 0.08 cr for period ended Mar 2020, a rise of 54112.5%
  • Operating Profits reported at Rs 3.37 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis 0.03 for period ended Mar 2020 .
  • Operating Margins contracted -2973.0 bps for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis Mar 2020 .
  • The EPS for Mar 2021 was Rs 0.7 compared to Rs 0.22 for previous quarter ended Dec 2020 and Rs 0.29 for Mar 2020

Profit & Loss Statement

Profit&Loss Comments

  • Company reported sales of Rs 142.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis sales of Rs 0.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2020, a growth of 0%.
  • Operating margins shrank to 9.0% for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis 30.0% for period ended Mar 2020, contraction of 2100.0 bps.
  • Net Profit reported at Rs 8.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis sales of Rs 0.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2020, rising 0%.

Balance Sheet Statement

Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow comments

    Sales Growth

    Profit Growth Statement

    Profit Growth Statement

    Stock Price CAGR

    Return of Equity

    General Comments

    – The company has worsened on its Return on Equity (RoE) metric. The RoE on Last Year basis was 12.0% compared to 51.0% over the last 3 Years.
    – The stock has given a return of 487% on a 1 Year basis vis-vis a return of 55% over the last 3 Years.
    – The compounded sales growth on a TTM bassis is 25124% vis-vis a compounded sales growth of 19% over the last 3 Years.
    – The compounded profit growth on a TTM basis is 232% vis-vis a compounded profit growth of 10% over the last 3 Years.

    Ratios

    Shareholding Pattern

    – FII shareholding has remained largely constant. The Mar 2021 fii holding stood at 10.93% vis-vis 10.93% for Dec 2020
    – Public shareholding has remained largely constant. The Mar 2021 public holding stood at 19.22% vis-vis 19.22% for Dec 2020

    Conclusion

    – is almost debt free.
    – has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 50.82%
    -Debtor days have improved from 173.38 to 73.00 days. – Stock is trading at 76.14 times its book value
    -Though the company is reporting repeated profits, it is not paying out dividend
    -Promoter holding has decreased over last quarter: -5.23%

    • The business fundamentals of the stock remain stable. Stronger near term results will build interest in the stock. We suggest to wait for a upturn in business performance.
    • Technically, the stock remains above its 50 DMA 224.08 and is trading at 228.0, thus bullish price action wise.
    • Thus, overall we retain a HOLD on the stock.

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