Short term Bitcoin is all speculation and tantamount to gambling.

We small players rely on two things. When the big players decide to cash out and when they cash in. Either way the price only goes up or down based on their big transactions. Unless you have insider knowledge you can’t predict this. Hence Bitcoin investment is gambling, especially in the short term.

The rational big players would only put their “play money” into crypto and will cash out when they need that money back. This is because if they have fiat currency they can grow it through accumulation of assets like shares.

Right now with economic downturn the big players need their play money back as a reserve so the price of bitcoin has dropped.

Bitcoin price will align to the world economic state rather than be a hedge against the economic state changing.

This will be the case until we see bitcoin become more of a transactional system of payment integral to day to day life. And realistically transactions are more efficiently achieved by the banks at the moment in terms of raw energy, security and user experience.

The game changer will be when quantum computing arrives and how tech responds. If encryption can be broken by anyone able to afford a quantum computer then the trust that underpins the entire payment system is in danger. This will impact both fiat and cryptos.

Imagine your NetBank password being packet sniffed. Now imagine your private key on your crypto wallet being reverse engineered.

At that point the only trust you can have is in physical goods and physical paper trails showing ownership.

If Crypto can beat the banks to addressing this problem then it can become the de facto transactional system and the purchasing power of a capped coin like bitcoin will always grow as the population grows.