Home Investment Memo: 500319

Investment Memo: 500319

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Our Rating: SELL

Mehabe score: 1
G Factor: 7
Piotski Score: 4
The stock has a rating SELL. The mehabe team score is reflective of its fundamental and technical merits. A rating above 8 is considered good buy. The stock has a G-Factor of 7 and Piotski score of 4.

Description

Indian Sucrose Limited is an India-based company, which engages in the manufacturing and refining of sugar.Site: 500319Main Symbol: INDSUCR

Price Chart

Market Cap: Rs 74.8 cr Price: 48.4 Trading pe: 3.34x
Book-value: 71.7/share Div yield: 0.00 % Earning yield: 19.67%
Face-value: 10.0/share 52week high: 71.90 52week low: 19.85

Technical Analysis

  • Stock trades at 48.4, below its 50dma 52.02. However it is trading above its 200dma 37.37. The stock remains weak in the short term due to near term bearish momentum. However overall bullish structure remains intact. Price action will further build up as it moves above its dma50, currently situated at 52.02.
  • The 52 week high is at 71.90 and the 52week low is at 19.85

Price Chart

P/E Chart

Sales and Margin

Strengths

– Stock is trading at 0.67 times its book value
– has delivered good profit growth of 30.18% CAGR over last 5 years

Weakness

– Though the company is reporting repeated profits, it is not paying out dividend
-The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 8.75% over past five years.
-Debtor days have increased from 44.79 to 62.52 days.

Competition

– The industry trades at a mean P/E of 12.9x. Bannari Amm.Sug. trades at the industry’s max P/E of 26.64x. 500319 trades at a P/E of 3.34x
– Industry’s mean G-Factor is 4.1 while the mean Piotski score is 8.0. 500319 has a G-Factor of 7 and Piotski scoreof 4.
– Average 1 month return for industry is -11.0%. The max 1- month return was given by Bannari Amm.Sug.: a return of -0.6 %

Quarterly Results

  • Sales for period ended Jun 2021 is Rs 80.61 cr compared to Rs 69.39 cr for period ended Jun 2020, a rise of 16.2%
  • Operating Profits reported at Rs 5.59 cr for period ended Jun 2021 vis-vis 3.46 for period ended Jun 2020 .
  • Operating Margins expanded 194.8 bps for period ended Jun 2021 vis-vis Jun 2020 .
  • The EPS for Jun 2021 was Rs 0.7 compared to Rs 13.16 for previous quarter ended Mar 2021 and Rs -1.49 for Jun 2020

Profit & Loss Statement

Profit&Loss Comments

  • Company reported sales of Rs 442.0 cr for period ended TTM vis-vis sales of Rs 431.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2021, a growth of 2.5%. The 3 year sales cagr stood at 6.8%.
  • Net Profit reported at Rs 26.0 cr for period ended TTM vis-vis sales of Rs 22.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2021, rising 15.4%.
  • Company recorded a healthy Net Profit CAGR of 86.6% over the last 3 years

Balance Sheet Statement

Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow comments

    Sales Growth

    Profit Growth Statement

    Profit Growth Statement

    Stock Price CAGR

    Return of Equity

    General Comments

    – The company has had stable/constant Return on Equity (RoE) metric. The RoE on Last Year basis was 22.0% compared to 20.0% over the last 3 Years.
    – The stock has given a return of 107% on a 1 Year basis vis-vis a return of 39% over the last 3 Years.
    – The compounded sales growth on a TTM bassis is -19% vis-vis a compounded sales growth of 1% over the last 3 Years.
    – The compounded profit growth on a TTM basis is 58% vis-vis a compounded profit growth of 19% over the last 3 Years.

    Ratios

    Shareholding Pattern

    – Public shareholding has remained largely constant. The Jun 2021 public holding stood at 41.03% vis-vis 41.03% for Mar 2021

    Conclusion

    – Stock is trading at 0.67 times its book value
    – has delivered good profit growth of 30.18% CAGR over last 5 years – Though the company is reporting repeated profits, it is not paying out dividend
    -The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 8.75% over past five years.
    -Debtor days have increased from 44.79 to 62.52 days.

    • Fundamentally, the stock remains weak. The business fundamentals are on shaky ground. Weak near term results have dampened and questioned business drivers. We suggest to wait for a upturn in business performance.
    • Technically, the stock reflects the poor fundamentals. The stock remains below its 50 DMA 52.02 and is trading at 48.4. It has shown near term lack of bullish momentum. We suggest to observe price action. However as investors, who like to avoid timing the markets, we suggest to avoid the stock
    • Thus, overall, we retain a STRONG SELL.

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