Investment Memo: 513005

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Our Rating: OBSERVE & HOLD

Mehabe score: 3
G Factor: 5
Piotski Score: 1
The stock has a rating OBSERVE & HOLD. The mehabe team score is reflective of its fundamental and technical merits. A rating above 8 is considered good buy. The stock has a G-Factor of 5 and Piotski score of 1.

Description

VBC Ferro Alloys is engaged in the business of manufacturing Ferro Alloys.Site: 513005Main Symbol: VBCFERROQ

Price Chart

Market Cap: Rs 33.6 cr Price: 20.5 Trading pe: x
Book-value: 70.4/share Div yield: 0.00 % Earning yield: -91.51%
Face-value: 10.0/share 52week high: 29.95 52week low: 10.63

Technical Analysis

  • Stock trades at 20.5, above its 50dma 20.38. It also trades above its 200dma 20.03. The stock remains bullish on techicals
  • The 52 week high is at 29.95 and the 52week low is at 10.63

Price Chart

P/E Chart

Sales and Margin

Strengths

– Stock is trading at 0.29 times its book value

Weakness

– has low interest coverage ratio.
– has a low return on equity of -16.87% for last 3 years.

Competition

– The industry trades at a mean P/E of 18.7x. KIOCL trades at the industry’s max P/E of 36.76x. 513005 trades at a P/E of x
– Industry’s mean G-Factor is 4.8 while the mean Piotski score is 9.0. 513005 has a G-Factor of 5 and Piotski scoreof 1.
– Average 1 month return for industry is -3.5%. The max 1- month return was given by MOIL: a return of 4.59 %

Quarterly Results

  • Sales for period ended Sep 2021 is Rs 0.09 cr compared to Rs 0.89 cr for period ended Sep 2020, a fall of 89.9%
  • Company reported negative operating profit of Rs -0.2 cr for period ended Sep 2021. For same period last year, operating profit was -29.53
  • The EPS for Sep 2021 was Rs -0.99 compared to Rs -1.09 for previous quarter ended Jun 2021 and Rs -12.29 for Sep 2020

Profit & Loss Statement

Profit&Loss Comments

  • Company reported sales of Rs 1.0 cr for period ended TTM vis-vis sales of Rs 2.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2021, a fall of 100.0%. The 3 year sales cagr stood at -37.0%.
  • Operating margins expanded to -2410.0% for period ended TTM vis-vis -3320.0% for period ended Mar 2021, expansion of 91000.0 bps.
  • Net Profit reported at Rs -29.0 cr for period ended TTM vis-vis sales of Rs -46.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2021, rising 0%.

Balance Sheet Statement

Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow comments

    Sales Growth

    Profit Growth Statement

    Profit Growth Statement

    Stock Price CAGR

    Return of Equity

    General Comments

    – The company has worsened on its Return on Equity (RoE) metric. The RoE on Last Year basis was -33.0% compared to -17.0% over the last 3 Years.
    – The stock has given a return of 28% on a 1 Year basis vis-vis a return of -28% over the last 3 Years.
    – The compounded sales growth on a TTM bassis is -91% vis-vis a compounded sales growth of % over the last 3 Years.
    – The compounded profit growth on a TTM basis is -166% vis-vis a compounded profit growth of % over the last 3 Years.

    Ratios

    Shareholding Pattern

    – Public shareholding has remained largely constant. The Sep 2021 public holding stood at 59.6% vis-vis 59.6% for Jun 2021

    Conclusion

    – Stock is trading at 0.29 times its book value – has low interest coverage ratio.
    – has a low return on equity of -16.87% for last 3 years.

    • Fundamentally, the stock remains weak on business fundamentals. Weak near term results have dampened and questioned business drivers. We suggest to wait for a upturn in business performance.
    • Technically, the stock trades above its 50 DMA 20.38 and is trading at 20.5 It has shown near term bullish momentum contrary to business fundamentals. We suggest to observe price action. However as investors, who like to avoid timing the markets, we suggest to avoid the stock
    • Thus, overall, we retain a OBSERVE & HOLD.

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