Home Investment Memo: 531234

Investment Memo: 531234

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Our Rating: SELL

Mehabe score: 4
G Factor: 1
Piotski Score: 4
The stock has a rating SELL. The mehabe team score is reflective of its fundamental and technical merits. A rating above 8 is considered good buy. The stock has a G-Factor of 1 and Piotski score of 4.

Description

Victory Paper & Boards (India) is engaged in manufacturin paper and paper boards.(Source : Company Webdite)Site: 531234

Market Cap: Rs 135 cr Price: 99.8 Trading pe: x
Book-value: -5.51/share Div yield: 0.00 % Earning yield: 0.14%
Face-value: 10.0/share 52week high: 136.95 52week low: 52.60

Technical Analysis

  • Stock trades at 99.8, below its 50dma 101.95. However it is trading above its 200dma 98.09. The stock remains weak in the short term due to near term bearish momentum. However overall bullish structure remains intact. Price action will further build up as it moves above its dma50, currently situated at 101.95.
  • The 52 week high is at 136.95 and the 52week low is at 52.60

Price Chart

P/E Chart

Sales and Margin

Strengths

– is expected to give good quarter

Weakness

– has low interest coverage ratio.

Competition

– The industry trades at a mean P/E of 21.1x. Century Textiles trades at the industry’s max P/E of 61.93x. 531234 trades at a P/E of x
– Industry’s mean G-Factor is 3.6 while the mean Piotski score is 7.0. 531234 has a G-Factor of 1 and Piotski scoreof 4.
– Average 1 month return for industry is 18.1%. The max 1- month return was given by JK Paper: a return of 34.91 %

Quarterly Results

  • Sales for period ended Mar 2021 is Rs 7.9 cr compared to Rs 5.96 cr for period ended Mar 2020, a rise of 32.6%
  • Company reported operating profit of Rs 0.65 cr for period ended Mar 2021, operating profit margin at 8.2 %.
  • Operating profit was negative for the same period last year thus company has improved its margins this year
  • The EPS for Mar 2021 was Rs -1.07 compared to Rs -0.99 for previous quarter ended Dec 2020 and Rs 0.06 for Mar 2020

Profit & Loss Statement

Profit&Loss Comments

  • Company reported sales of Rs 26.08 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis sales of Rs 17.47 cr for the period ended Mar 2020, a healthy growth of 33.0%. The 3 year sales cagr stood at 588.2%.
  • Operating margins expanded to 3.03% for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis -14.54% for period ended Mar 2020, expansion of 1757.0 bps.
  • Net Profit reported at Rs -4.45 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis sales of Rs -4.87 cr for the period ended Mar 2020, rising 0%.

Balance Sheet Statement

Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow comments

  • CashFlow from operating activities: Rs 0.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis Rs -9.21 cr for period ended Mar 2020

Sales Growth

Profit Growth Statement

Profit Growth Statement

Stock Price CAGR

Return of Equity

General Comments

– The stock has given a return of 64% on a 1 Year basis vis-vis a return of 40% over the last 3 Years.
– The compounded sales growth on a TTM bassis is 49% vis-vis a compounded sales growth of 588% over the last 3 Years.
– The compounded profit growth on a TTM basis is 9% vis-vis a compounded profit growth of % over the last 3 Years.

Ratios

Shareholding Pattern

– Public shareholding has remained largely constant. The Mar 2021 public holding stood at 23.53% vis-vis 23.53% for Dec 2020

Conclusion

– is expected to give good quarter – has low interest coverage ratio.

  • Fundamentally, the stock remains weak. The business fundamentals are on shaky ground. Weak near term results have dampened and questioned business drivers. We suggest to wait for a upturn in business performance.
  • Technically, the stock reflects the poor fundamentals. The stock remains below its 50 DMA 101.95 and is trading at 99.8. It has shown near term lack of bullish momentum. We suggest to observe price action. However as investors, who like to avoid timing the markets, we suggest to avoid the stock
  • Thus, overall, we retain a STRONG SELL.

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