Investment Memo: TVSMOTOR

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Our Rating: HOLD

Mehabe score: 2
G Factor: 4
Piotski Score: 5
The stock has a rating HOLD. The mehabe team score is reflective of its fundamental and technical merits. A rating above 8 is considered good buy. The stock has a G-Factor of 4 and Piotski score of 5.

Description

TVS Motor Company is engaged in the business of manufactures two wheelers, three wheelers, parts and accessories thereof.Site: TVSMOTORMain Symbol: TVSMOTOR

Price Chart

Market Cap: Rs 28,898 cr Price: 608.0 Trading pe: 48.1x
Book-value: 80.6/share Div yield: 0.58 % Earning yield: 4.63%
Face-value: 1.00/share 52week high: 666.00 52week low: 377.00

Technical Analysis

  • Stock trades at 608.0, below its 50dma 614.47. However it is trading above its 200dma 554.46. The stock remains weak in the short term due to near term bearish momentum. However overall bullish structure remains intact. Price action will further build up as it moves above its dma50, currently situated at 614.47.
  • The 52 week high is at 666.00 and the 52week low is at 377.00

Price Chart

P/E Chart

Sales and Margin

Strengths

– has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 26.07%

Weakness

– Stock is trading at 7.55 times its book value
– has low interest coverage ratio.
-The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 11.29% over past five years.

Competition

– The industry trades at a mean P/E of 41.0x. Eicher Motors trades at the industry’s max P/E of 55.03x. TVSMOTOR trades at a P/E of 48.1x
– Industry’s mean G-Factor is 5.3 while the mean Piotski score is 6.0. TVSMOTOR has a G-Factor of 4 and Piotski scoreof 5.
– Average 1 month return for industry is -2.6%. The max 1- month return was given by Eicher Motors: a return of -1.22 %

Quarterly Results

  • Sales for period ended Mar 2021 is Rs 6132.0 cr compared to Rs 4105.0 cr for period ended Mar 2020, a rise of 49.4%
  • Operating Profits reported at Rs 778.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis 519.0 for period ended Mar 2020 .
  • Operating Margins expanded 4.4 bps for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis Mar 2020 .
  • The EPS for Mar 2021 was Rs 6.53 compared to Rs 5.97 for previous quarter ended Dec 2020 and Rs 1.56 for Mar 2020

Profit & Loss Statement

Profit&Loss Comments

  • Company reported sales of Rs 19421.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis sales of Rs 18849.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2020, a growth of 2.9%. The 3 year sales cagr stood at 5.9%.
  • Operating margins shrank to 11.0% for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis 12.0% for period ended Mar 2020, contraction of 100.0 bps.
  • Net Profit reported at Rs 594.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis sales of Rs 625.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2020, falling 5.2%.
  • Company reported a poor Net Profit CAGR of -3.1% over the last 3 years

Balance Sheet Statement

Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow comments

  • CashFlow from operating activities was positive.
  • CashFlow from operating activities: Rs 1151.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis Rs 373.0 cr for period ended Mar 2020

Sales Growth

Profit Growth Statement

Profit Growth Statement

Stock Price CAGR

Return of Equity

General Comments

– The stock has given a return of 49% on a 1 Year basis vis-vis a return of 2% over the last 3 Years.
– The compounded sales growth on a TTM bassis is 3% vis-vis a compounded sales growth of 6% over the last 3 Years.
– The compounded profit growth on a TTM basis is -7% vis-vis a compounded profit growth of -4% over the last 3 Years.

Ratios

Shareholding Pattern

– FII shareholding has remained largely constant. The Mar 2021 fii holding stood at 12.34% vis-vis 11.15% for Dec 2020
– Public shareholding has remained largely constant. The Mar 2021 public holding stood at 9.42% vis-vis 9.99% for Dec 2020

Conclusion

– has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 26.07% – Stock is trading at 7.55 times its book value
– has low interest coverage ratio.
-The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 11.29% over past five years.

  • The business fundamentals of the stock remain stable. Stronger near term results will build interest in the stock. We suggest to wait for a upturn in business performance.
  • Technically, the stock remains below its 50 DMA 614.47 and is trading at 608.0. Shows a near term lack of buying interest.
  • Thus, overall we retain a HOLD on the stock.

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