Home Investment Memo: ULTRACEMCO

Investment Memo: ULTRACEMCO

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Our Rating: HOLD

Mehabe score: 4
G Factor: 4
Piotski Score: 6
The stock has a rating HOLD. The mehabe team score is reflective of its fundamental and technical merits. A rating above 8 is considered good buy. The stock has a G-Factor of 4 and Piotski score of 6.

Description

UltraTech Cement is engaged in the manufacturing and sale of Cement and Cement related product primarily in India.[1]Site: ULTRACEMCOMain Symbol: ULTRACEMCO

Price Chart

Market Cap: Rs 213,478 cr Price: 7396.0 Trading pe: 32.5x
Book-value: 1,530/share Div yield: 0.50 % Earning yield: 4.76%
Face-value: 10.0/share 52week high: 8073.30 52week low: 4029.90

Technical Analysis

  • Stock trades at 7396.0, below its 50dma 7531.2. However it is trading above its 200dma 6646.03. The stock remains weak in the short term due to near term bearish momentum. However overall bullish structure remains intact. Price action will further build up as it moves above its dma50, currently situated at 7531.2.
  • The 52 week high is at 8073.30 and the 52week low is at 4029.90

Price Chart

P/E Chart

Sales and Margin

Strengths

Weakness

– Stock is trading at 4.83 times its book value
– has a low return on equity of 13.27% for last 3 years.

Competition

– The industry trades at a mean P/E of 16.8x. Shree Cement trades at the industry’s max P/E of 39.0x. ULTRACEMCO trades at a P/E of 32.5x
– Industry’s mean G-Factor is 4.7 while the mean Piotski score is 9.0. ULTRACEMCO has a G-Factor of 4 and Piotski scoreof 6.
– Average 1 month return for industry is -1.3%. The max 1- month return was given by Birla Corpn.: a return of 9.44 %

Quarterly Results

  • Sales for period ended Sep 2021 is Rs 12017.0 cr compared to Rs 10387.0 cr for period ended Sep 2020, a rise of 15.7%
  • Operating Profits reported at Rs 2715.0 cr for period ended Sep 2021 vis-vis 2698.0 for period ended Sep 2020 .
  • Operating Margins contracted -338.2 bps for period ended Sep 2021 vis-vis Sep 2020 .
  • The EPS for Sep 2021 was Rs 45.5 compared to Rs 58.99 for previous quarter ended Jun 2021 and Rs 45.36 for Sep 2020

Profit & Loss Statement

Profit&Loss Comments

  • Company reported sales of Rs 50514.0 cr for period ended TTM vis-vis sales of Rs 44726.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2021, a healthy growth of 11.5%. The 3 year sales cagr stood at 6.8%.
  • Operating margins shrank to 25.0% for period ended TTM vis-vis 26.0% for period ended Mar 2021, contraction of 100.0 bps.
  • Net Profit reported at Rs 6376.0 cr for period ended TTM vis-vis sales of Rs 5463.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2021, rising 14.3%.
  • Company recorded a healthy Net Profit CAGR of 38.4% over the last 3 years

Balance Sheet Statement

Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow comments

  • CashFlow from operating activities was positive.
  • CashFlow from operating activities: Rs 12503.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis Rs 8972.0 cr for period ended Mar 2020

Sales Growth

Profit Growth Statement

Profit Growth Statement

Stock Price CAGR

Return of Equity

General Comments

– The company has had stable/constant Return on Equity (RoE) metric. The RoE on Last Year basis was 13.0% compared to 13.0% over the last 3 Years.
– The stock has given a return of 65% on a 1 Year basis vis-vis a return of 27% over the last 3 Years.
– The compounded sales growth on a TTM bassis is 27% vis-vis a compounded sales growth of 13% over the last 3 Years.
– The compounded profit growth on a TTM basis is 24% vis-vis a compounded profit growth of 32% over the last 3 Years.

Ratios

Shareholding Pattern

– FII shareholding has remained largely constant. The Sep 2021 fii holding stood at 16.48% vis-vis 16.58% for Jun 2021
– Public shareholding has remained largely constant. The Sep 2021 public holding stood at 8.91% vis-vis 8.95% for Jun 2021

Conclusion

– – Stock is trading at 4.83 times its book value
– has a low return on equity of 13.27% for last 3 years.

  • The business fundamentals of the stock remain stable. Stronger near term results will build interest in the stock. We suggest to wait for a upturn in business performance.
  • Technically, the stock remains below its 50 DMA 7531.2 and is trading at 7396.0. Shows a near term lack of buying interest.
  • Thus, overall we retain a HOLD on the stock.

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