Investment Memo: ANDHRAPAP

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Our Rating: SELL

Mehabe score: 3
G Factor: 6
Piotski Score: 4
The stock has a rating SELL. The mehabe team score is reflective of its fundamental and technical merits. A rating above 8 is considered good buy. The stock has a G-Factor of 6 and Piotski score of 4.

Description

Andhra Paper is engaged in the Business of Manufacture and sale of paper, pulp and paper & paper board.
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Site: ANDHRAPAP
Main Symbol: ANDHRAPAP

Price Chart

Market Cap: Rs 830 cr Price: 209.0 Trading pe: 10.2x
Book-value: 252/share Div yield: 2.40 % Earning yield: 13.57%
Face-value: 10.0/share 52week high: 283.70 52week low: 202.20

Technical Analysis

  • Stock trades at 209.0, below its 50dma 220.25 and below its 200dma 228.5. The stock remains bearish on technicals
  • The 52 week high is at 283.70 and the 52week low is at 202.20

Price Chart

P/E Chart

Sales and Margin

Strengths

– is almost debt free.
-Stock is trading at 0.83 times its book value
– is expected to give good quarter

Weakness

– The company has delivered a poor sales growth of -4.62% over past five years.
-Promoters have pledged 70.64% of their holding.

Competition

– The industry trades at a mean P/E of 15.4x. Century Textiles trades at the industry’s max P/E of 134.29x. ANDHRAPAP trades at a P/E of 10.2x
– Industry’s mean G-Factor is 5.0 while the mean Piotski score is 5.0. ANDHRAPAP has a G-Factor of 6 and Piotski scoreof 4.
– Average 1 month return for industry is 5.0%. The max 1- month return was given by Emami Paper: a return of 25.4 %

Quarterly Results

  • Sales for period ended Dec 2021 is Rs 346.0 cr compared to Rs 249.0 cr for period ended Dec 2020, a rise of 39.0% .
  • vis-vis 16.0 for period ended Dec 2020 .

  • Operating Margins expanded 1149.3 bps for period ended Dec 2021 vis-vis Dec 2020.
  • Company reported operating profit of Rs 62.0 cr for period ended Dec 2021 and operating profit margin at 17.9 % for same period.
  • The EPS for quarter ended Dec 2021 is Rs 9.37 compared to Rs 4.74 for previous quarter ended Sep 2021 and Rs 1.02 for Dec 2020.

Profit & Loss Statement

Profit&Loss Comments

  • Company reported sales of Rs 1317.0 cr for period ended TTM vis-vis sales of Rs 887.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2021, a healthy growth of 32.6%. The 3 year sales cagr stood at -2.6%.
  • Operating margins expanded to 15.0% for period ended TTM vis-vis 7.0% for period ended Mar 2021, expansion of 800.0 bps.
  • Net Profit reported at Rs 115.0 cr for period ended TTM vis-vis sales of Rs -5.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2021, rising 104.3%.
  • Company reported a poor Net Profit CAGR of -16.8% over the last 3 years

Balance Sheet Statement

Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow comments

  • CashFlow from operating activities was positive.

Sales Growth

Profit Growth Statement

Profit Growth Statement

Stock Price CAGR

Return of Equity

General Comments

– The company has worsened on its Return on Equity (RoE) metric. The RoE on Last Year basis was 0.0% compared to 17.0% over the last 3 Years.
– The stock has given a return of 1% on a 1 Year basis vis-vis a return of -24% over the last 3 Years.
– The compounded sales growth on a TTM bassis is 35% vis-vis a compounded sales growth of -11% over the last 3 Years.
– The compounded profit growth on a TTM basis is -24% vis-vis a compounded profit growth of % over the last 3 Years.

Ratios

Shareholding Pattern

– FII shareholding has remained largely constant. The Dec 2021 fii holding stood at 0.0% vis-vis 0.0% for Sep 2021
– Public shareholding has remained largely constant. The Dec 2021 public holding stood at 16.13% vis-vis 15.54% for Sep 2021

Conclusion

– is almost debt free.
-Stock is trading at 0.83 times its book value
– is expected to give good quarter – The company has delivered a poor sales growth of -4.62% over past five years.
-Promoters have pledged 70.64% of their holding.

  • Fundamentally, the stock remains weak. The business fundamentals are on shaky ground. Weak near term results have dampened and questioned business drivers. We suggest to wait for a upturn in business performance.
  • Technically, the stock reflects the poor fundamentals. The stock remains below its 50 DMA 220.25 and is trading at 209.0. It has shown near term lack of bullish momentum. We suggest to observe price action. However as investors, who like to avoid timing the markets, we suggest to avoid the stock
  • Thus, overall, we retain a STRONG SELL.

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