Investment Memo: HMVL

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Our Rating: OBSERVE & HOLD

Mehabe score: 2
G Factor: 2
Piotski Score: 4
The stock has a rating OBSERVE & HOLD. The mehabe team score is reflective of its fundamental and technical merits. A rating above 8 is considered good buy. The stock has a G-Factor of 2 and Piotski score of 4.

Description

Hindustan Media Ventures is engaged in the business of Printing and Publication of Newspapers and Periodicals.Site: HMVL

Market Cap: Rs 701 cr Price: 95.1 Trading pe: 9.39x
Book-value: 216/share Div yield: 0.00 % Earning yield: 13.19%
Face-value: 10.0/share 52week high: 107.00 52week low: 41.25

Technical Analysis

  • Stock trades at 95.1, above its 50dma 78.48. It also trades above its 200dma 64.53. The stock remains bullish on techicals
  • The 52 week high is at 107.00 and the 52week low is at 41.25

Price Chart

P/E Chart

Sales and Margin

Strengths

– has reduced debt.
– is almost debt free.
-Stock is trading at 0.44 times its book value
-Market value of investments Rs.1150.33 Cr. is more than the Market Cap Rs.700.62 Cr.

Weakness

– Though the company is reporting repeated profits, it is not paying out dividend
-The company has delivered a poor sales growth of -9.88% over past five years.
-Tax rate seems low
– has a low return on equity of 6.86% for last 3 years.
-Earnings include an other income of Rs.118.85 Cr.
-Dividend payout has been low at 2.71% of profits over last 3 years

Competition

– The industry trades at a mean P/E of 10.9x. Jagran Prakashan trades at the industry’s max P/E of 19.56x. HMVL trades at a P/E of 9.39x
– Industry’s mean G-Factor is 3.4 while the mean Piotski score is 7.0. HMVL has a G-Factor of 2 and Piotski scoreof 4.
– Average 1 month return for industry is 21.7%. The max 1- month return was given by Sambhaav Media: a return of 41.82 %

Quarterly Results

  • Sales for period ended Mar 2021 is Rs 162.0 cr compared to Rs 177.0 cr for period ended Mar 2020, a fall of 8.5%
  • Operating Profits reported at Rs 26.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis 15.0 for period ended Mar 2020 .
  • Operating Margins expanded 757.5 bps for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis Mar 2020 .
  • The EPS for Mar 2021 was Rs 3.06 compared to Rs 4.84 for previous quarter ended Dec 2020 and Rs 3.75 for Mar 2020

Profit & Loss Statement

Profit&Loss Comments

  • Company reported sales of Rs 545.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis sales of Rs 796.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2020, a fall of 46.1%. The 3 year sales cagr stood at -14.8%.
  • Operating margins shrank to 1.0% for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis 12.0% for period ended Mar 2020, contraction of 1100.0 bps.
  • Net Profit reported at Rs 75.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis sales of Rs 119.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2020, falling 58.7%.
  • Company reported a poor Net Profit CAGR of -24.0% over the last 3 years

Balance Sheet Statement

Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow comments

    Sales Growth

    Profit Growth Statement

    Profit Growth Statement

    Stock Price CAGR

    Return of Equity

    General Comments

    – The company has had stable/constant Return on Equity (RoE) metric. The RoE on Last Year basis was 5.0% compared to 7.0% over the last 3 Years.
    – The stock has given a return of 129% on a 1 Year basis vis-vis a return of -22% over the last 3 Years.
    – The compounded sales growth on a TTM bassis is -31% vis-vis a compounded sales growth of -15% over the last 3 Years.
    – The compounded profit growth on a TTM basis is -37% vis-vis a compounded profit growth of -24% over the last 3 Years.

    Ratios

    Shareholding Pattern

    – FII shareholding has remained largely constant. The Mar 2021 fii holding stood at 13.76% vis-vis 13.76% for Dec 2020
    – Public shareholding has remained largely constant. The Mar 2021 public holding stood at 11.33% vis-vis 10.94% for Dec 2020

    Conclusion

    – has reduced debt.
    – is almost debt free.
    -Stock is trading at 0.44 times its book value
    -Market value of investments Rs.1150.33 Cr. is more than the Market Cap Rs.700.62 Cr. – Though the company is reporting repeated profits, it is not paying out dividend
    -The company has delivered a poor sales growth of -9.88% over past five years.
    -Tax rate seems low
    – has a low return on equity of 6.86% for last 3 years.
    -Earnings include an other income of Rs.118.85 Cr.
    -Dividend payout has been low at 2.71% of profits over last 3 years

    • Fundamentally, the stock remains weak on business fundamentals. Weak near term results have dampened and questioned business drivers. We suggest to wait for a upturn in business performance.
    • Technically, the stock trades above its 50 DMA 78.48 and is trading at 95.1 It has shown near term bullish momentum contrary to business fundamentals. We suggest to observe price action. However as investors, who like to avoid timing the markets, we suggest to avoid the stock
    • Thus, overall, we retain a OBSERVE & HOLD.

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