Investment Memo: MGL

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Our Rating: HOLD

Mehabe score: 4
G Factor: 5
Piotski Score: 7
The stock has a rating HOLD. The mehabe team score is reflective of its fundamental and technical merits. A rating above 8 is considered good buy. The stock has a G-Factor of 5 and Piotski score of 7.

Description

Mahanagar Gas Ltd is in the business of City Gas Distribution (CGD), presently supplying Natural Gas in the city of Mumbai including its adjoining areas and the Raigad district, in the State of Maharashtra, India.Site: MGLMain Symbol: MGL

Price Chart

Market Cap: Rs 11,050 cr Price: 1119.0 Trading pe: 17.8x
Book-value: 327/share Div yield: 0.80 % Earning yield: 7.79%
Face-value: 10.0/share 52week high: 1284.45 52week low: 779.65

Technical Analysis

  • Stock trades at 1119.0, below its 50dma 1158.83. However it is trading above its 200dma 1100.56. The stock remains weak in the short term due to near term bearish momentum. However overall bullish structure remains intact. Price action will further build up as it moves above its dma50, currently situated at 1158.83.
  • The 52 week high is at 1284.45 and the 52week low is at 779.65

Price Chart

P/E Chart

Sales and Margin

Strengths

– is almost debt free.
– has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 38.80%

Weakness

– The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 0.70% over past five years.
-Promoter holding has decreased over last 3 years: -24.00%

Competition

– The industry trades at a mean P/E of 14.7x. Adani Total Gas trades at the industry’s max P/E of 214.48x. MGL trades at a P/E of 17.8x
– Industry’s mean G-Factor is 4.9 while the mean Piotski score is 7.0. MGL has a G-Factor of 5 and Piotski scoreof 7.
– Average 1 month return for industry is -1.4%. The max 1- month return was given by Deep Industries: a return of 22.41 %

Quarterly Results

  • Sales for period ended Jun 2021 is Rs 615.0 cr compared to Rs 262.0 cr for period ended Jun 2020, a rise of 134.7%
  • Operating Profits reported at Rs 304.0 cr for period ended Jun 2021 vis-vis 80.0 for period ended Jun 2020 .
  • Operating Margins expanded 1889.7 bps for period ended Jun 2021 vis-vis Jun 2020 .
  • The EPS for Jun 2021 was Rs 20.66 compared to Rs 21.54 for previous quarter ended Mar 2021 and Rs 4.58 for Jun 2020

Profit & Loss Statement

Profit&Loss Comments

  • Company reported sales of Rs 2506.0 cr for period ended TTM vis-vis sales of Rs 2153.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2021, a healthy growth of 14.1%. The 3 year sales cagr stood at -3.5%.
  • Operating margins expanded to 46.0% for period ended TTM vis-vis 43.0% for period ended Mar 2021, expansion of 300.0 bps.
  • Net Profit reported at Rs 778.0 cr for period ended TTM vis-vis sales of Rs 620.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2021, rising 20.3%.
  • Company recorded a healthy Net Profit CAGR of 12.5% over the last 3 years

Balance Sheet Statement

Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow comments

  • CashFlow from operating activities was positive.

Sales Growth

Profit Growth Statement

Profit Growth Statement

Stock Price CAGR

Return of Equity

General Comments

– The company has worsened on its Return on Equity (RoE) metric. The RoE on Last Year basis was 20.0% compared to 24.0% over the last 3 Years.
– The stock has given a return of 12% on a 1 Year basis vis-vis a return of 8% over the last 3 Years.
– The compounded sales growth on a TTM bassis is -28% vis-vis a compounded sales growth of -1% over the last 3 Years.
– The compounded profit growth on a TTM basis is -22% vis-vis a compounded profit growth of 9% over the last 3 Years.

Ratios

Shareholding Pattern

– FII shareholding has remained largely constant. The Jun 2021 fii holding stood at 29.59% vis-vis 31.11% for Mar 2021
– Public shareholding has remained largely constant. The Jun 2021 public holding stood at 9.52% vis-vis 9.22% for Mar 2021

Conclusion

– is almost debt free.
– has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 38.80% – The company has delivered a poor sales growth of 0.70% over past five years.
-Promoter holding has decreased over last 3 years: -24.00%

  • The business fundamentals of the stock remain stable. Stronger near term results will build interest in the stock. We suggest to wait for a upturn in business performance.
  • Technically, the stock remains below its 50 DMA 1158.83 and is trading at 1119.0. Shows a near term lack of buying interest.
  • Thus, overall we retain a HOLD on the stock.

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