Home Investment Memo: PAYTM

Investment Memo: PAYTM

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Our Rating: SELL

Mehabe score: 2
G Factor: 4
Piotski Score: 4
The stock has a rating SELL. The mehabe team score is reflective of its fundamental and technical merits. A rating above 8 is considered good buy. The stock has a G-Factor of 4 and Piotski score of 4.

Description

Incorporated in 2000, One 97 Communications Ltd is India’s leading digital ecosystem for consumers as well as merchants. As of March 31, 2021, the company has a 333 million+ client base and 21 million+ registered merchants to whom it offers payment services, financial services, and commerce and cloud services.[1]
Site: PAYTM
Main Symbol: PAYTM

Price Chart

Market Cap: Rs 61,800 cr Price: 953.0 Trading pe: x
Book-value: 96.6/share Div yield: 0.00 % Earning yield: -2.42%
Face-value: 1.00/share 52week high: 1961.05 52week low: 875.00

Technical Analysis

  • Stock trades at 953.0, below its 50dma 1202.4 and below its 200dma 1436.79. The stock remains bearish on technicals
  • The 52 week high is at 1961.05 and the 52week low is at 875.00

Price Chart

P/E Chart

Sales and Margin

Strengths

– is almost debt free.

Weakness

– Stock is trading at 9.87 times its book value
– has low interest coverage ratio.
– has a low return on equity of -36.26% for last 3 years.
-Debtor days have increased from 39.46 to 51.01 days.

Competition

– The industry trades at a mean P/E of 49.3x. FSN E-Commerce trades at the industry’s max P/E of 1436.25x. PAYTM trades at a P/E of x
– Industry’s mean G-Factor is 4.0 while the mean Piotski score is 8.0. PAYTM has a G-Factor of 4 and Piotski scoreof 4.
– Average 1 month return for industry is -14.9%. The max 1- month return was given by Just Dial: a return of 10.83 %

Quarterly Results

  • Sales for period ended Dec 2021 is Rs 921.0 cr compared to Rs 617.0 cr for period ended Sep 2020, a rise of 49.3% .
  • .

  • Company reported negative operating profit of Rs -790.0 cr for period ended Dec 2021. For same period last year, operating profit was -435.0.
  • The EPS for quarter ended Dec 2021 is Rs -12.03 compared to Rs -7.56 for previous quarter ended Sep 2021 and Rs -64.55 for Sep 2020.

Profit & Loss Statement

Profit&Loss Comments

  • Company reported sales of Rs 2667.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis sales of Rs 3115.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2020, a fall of 16.8%. The 3 year sales cagr stood at -3.7%.
  • Operating margins expanded to -63.0% for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis -79.0% for period ended Mar 2020, expansion of 1600.0 bps.
  • Net Profit reported at Rs -1560.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis sales of Rs -2833.0 cr for the period ended Mar 2020, rising 0%.

Balance Sheet Statement

Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow comments

  • CashFlow from operating activities: Rs -2002.0 cr for period ended Mar 2021 vis-vis Rs -2242.0 cr for period ended Mar 2020

Sales Growth

Profit Growth Statement

Profit Growth Statement

Stock Price CAGR

Return of Equity

General Comments

– The company has improved its Return on Equity (RoE) metric. The RoE on Last Year basis was -19.0% compared to -36.0% over the last 3 Years.
– The stock has given a return of % on a 1 Year basis vis-vis a return of % over the last 3 Years.
– The compounded sales growth on a TTM bassis is -14% vis-vis a compounded sales growth of -4% over the last 3 Years.
– The compounded profit growth on a TTM basis is 40% vis-vis a compounded profit growth of 0% over the last 3 Years.

Ratios

Shareholding Pattern

Conclusion

– is almost debt free. – Stock is trading at 9.87 times its book value
– has low interest coverage ratio.
– has a low return on equity of -36.26% for last 3 years.
-Debtor days have increased from 39.46 to 51.01 days.

  • Fundamentally, the stock remains weak. The business fundamentals are on shaky ground. Weak near term results have dampened and questioned business drivers. We suggest to wait for a upturn in business performance.
  • Technically, the stock reflects the poor fundamentals. The stock remains below its 50 DMA 1202.4 and is trading at 953.0. It has shown near term lack of bullish momentum. We suggest to observe price action. However as investors, who like to avoid timing the markets, we suggest to avoid the stock
  • Thus, overall, we retain a STRONG SELL.

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